The 9 Most Important Narratives Shaping Oscar Season

The weather is cooling down, leaves are changing color, and awards season is officially underway! Film experts are already dissecting the reactions from festivals in Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, trying to predict which movies and actors will come out on top. Over the next few months, we’ll be following all the buzz, awards shows, and industry talk surrounding the Oscars. Each week, we’ll share our ‘Oscar Futures’ rankings to show who’s gaining momentum. We’ll start those next Friday, but first, let’s look at the key stories that will drive this year’s awards race. Winning an Oscar isn’t just about a film’s quality; voters consider many factors – a director’s previous work, an actor’s public image, and how important a film seems – before making their final decisions.

Last year saw several standout films like Neon’s success with *Anora*, the impressive scale of *The Brutalist*, the mixed reactions to *Emilia Pérez*, and Demi Moore’s return in *The Substance*. This year promises a diverse range of stories – from vampires and revolutionaries to mysterious CEOs and a Bruce Springsteen biopic, plus a fresh take on the friendship between Elphaba and Galinda. With so much coming out, let’s start by looking at the biggest hit of the spring season.

Can Sinners go the distance?

For months, the movie *Sinners* has been the frontrunner in Oscar discussions. Directed by Ryan Coogler, this unique vampire film, which blends musical elements and a gritty setting, received rave reviews and earned $278 million domestically. Like Jordan Peele’s *Get Out* – another well-received and thought-provoking film from earlier in the year – *Sinners* has a strong chance of continuing its success and potentially earning a Best Director nomination for its promising Black director.

Ryan Coogler’s previous films show that critical acclaim doesn’t always translate to Oscar success. His first film, *Fruitvale Station*, received a lot of buzz and praise for Michael B. Jordan at Sundance, but the studio didn’t mount a strong awards campaign. *Creed* also earned rave reviews for both Coogler and Jordan, yet only Sylvester Stallone received an Oscar nomination. While *Black Panther* finally achieved significant Oscar recognition – including a Best Picture nomination and three wins – Coogler and Jordan were surprisingly overlooked with individual nominations.

The film *Sinners* could be a major success for director Ryan Coogler and star Michael B. Jordan, but it might also face resistance from the Academy Awards. There’s likely to be debate about the film’s genre – is it a drama, horror, or even a musical? – and whether its intense or provocative themes about the exploitation of Black culture will be too much for some voters. However, the Academy has recently shown a willingness to embrace innovative and genre-mixing films like *Everything Everywhere All at Once* and *Barbie*. In a year where many expected awards contenders haven’t lived up to the hype, *Sinners* stands out because it’s already been well-received by both critics and audiences.

Is it Paul Thomas Anderson’s time?

Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film, *One Battle After Another*, is out this week, and I’ve been writing about its potential at the Oscars. Critics are loving it! There’s a lot of interesting storylines surrounding the movie, including Leonardo DiCaprio’s bid for another Best Actor award and the possibility of Sean Penn winning his third Oscar. We’re also watching to see which Supporting Actress – the powerful Teyana Taylor or newcomer Chase Infiniti – will gain momentum. Beyond the awards buzz, the film’s story, set against a backdrop of white supremacy and a fight for revolution, feels particularly relevant to what’s happening in America today.

What horse(s) will Netflix ride into Oscar season?

As usual, Netflix has a large number of films with potential for Oscar nominations this fall. While most people expect them to narrow their focus to around two main contenders, the recent film festivals haven’t made it clear which movies those will be.

Neither Noah Baumbach’s *Jay Kelly* nor Guillermo del Toro’s *Frankenstein* received strong reviews at the Venice Film Festival. While *Frankenstein* did win second place at Toronto’s People’s Choice Award (an award that often predicts Best Picture nominees), most critics haven’t been impressed, though Jacob Elordi’s performance as the monster has been praised. *Jay Kelly* appears to have better chances, as it’s a film about a famous actor (George Clooney) looking back on his life. While movies about Hollywood are a common Oscar contender, that doesn’t diminish the film’s potential. Even without widespread critical acclaim, the involvement of Baumbach, Clooney, and co-stars like Adam Sandler and Laura Dern in promoting the film should keep it in contention for an Oscar.

Kathryn Bigelow’s new film, *A House of Dynamite*, was a hit at the Venice Film Festival. Bigelow, who made history as the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar, hasn’t had a major Oscar contender since *Zero Dark Thirty* in 2012. Her latest is a tense thriller centered around a potential nuclear attack on the United States. Another notable film is Clint Bentley’s *Train Dreams*, which received positive reviews at Sundance. While critically acclaimed, it might struggle to gain attention this fall due to competition from several larger, high-profile Oscar hopefuls.

There’s plenty more exciting news! Director Edward Berger, known for *All Quiet on the Western Front* and *Conclave*, returns with a new film, *Ballad of a Small Player*, starring Colin Farrell as a Las Vegas gambler. Richard Linklater is also premiering *Nouvelle Vague*, a tribute to the French New Wave cinema. Kate Winslet is set to make her directorial debut with *Goodbye June* before the end of the year, and Rian Johnson is back with another Benoit Blanc mystery, *Wake Up Dead Man*, which was a hit at TIFF. Plus, don’t forget the animated film *K-Pop Demon Hunters*, which is currently predicted to win awards for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song.

Now that Netflix has chosen the films it will submit for Oscar consideration, the big question is whether they can finally win Best Picture. While none of their current contenders seem like guaranteed winners, Netflix will undoubtedly give it their all.

How much will Cannes matter?

Before 2019, only two films had achieved the rare double of winning both the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and the Best Picture Oscar: *The Lost Weekend* (1945) and *Marty* (1955). More recently, *Parasite* and *Anora* have joined that exclusive group. As the Academy Awards voters have become more diverse and international, Cannes has gained significant influence over the Oscars. Several recent Best Picture nominees first premiered at Cannes, including *The Substance*, *Emilia Pérez*, *Anatomy of a Fall*, *The Zone of Interest*, *Triangle of Sadness*, and *Drive My Car*, to name just a few.

The 2025 film festival showcased several potential award winners. Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or-winning film, *It Was Just an Accident*, is particularly noteworthy, as it’s based on the director’s own experiences with imprisonment and exile, which may resonate with awards voters. Joachim Trier’s *Sentimental Value* is already being discussed as a possible Oscar contender, especially given the success of his previous film with Renate Reinsve, *The Worst Person in the World*, which received a screenplay nomination in 2021. This new film also stars Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning, both of whom have never been nominated for an Oscar and could be in line for recognition.

Several films shown at Cannes will also be submitted by their respective countries for consideration in the Best International Feature Oscar category, including Spain’s *Sirât*, Brazil’s *The Secret Agent*, Germany’s *Sound of Falling*, and Colombia’s *A Poet*.

Will the Emma Stone-Yorgos Lanthimos combo score again?

As a total movie buff, I’m really excited about the latest from Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone. They’ve teamed up before – remember *The Favourite* and *Poor Things*? Both were huge Oscar contenders! Last year’s *Kinds of Kindness* didn’t quite land, but their new film, *Bugonia*, feels like they’re back on track. The premise is wonderfully weird: Stone plays a CEO who gets abducted by conspiracy theorists convinced she’s an alien. Honestly, it feels very relevant to the world we’re living in right now. And early buzz is great, especially about Jesse Plemons’ performance alongside Stone. I have a feeling this one will be in the awards conversation again.

Can Hamnet ride a wave of tears to the Oscar stage?

Chloé Zhao’s *Hamnet* is being hailed as the standout film of the fall festival season. Zhao, who previously won an Oscar for *Nomadland*, adapted Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, which tells a fictionalized story of William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife, Agnes (Jessie Buckley), as they grieve the loss of their son. The film quickly gained attention after its premiere at Telluride, with many viewers moved to tears, especially by Buckley’s performance. It continued to impress at Toronto, winning the People’s Choice Award – a strong indicator of potential Oscar success. *Hamnet* could mark a return to critical acclaim for Zhao after her work on the Marvel film *Eternals*. However, Jessie Buckley is generating significant Oscar buzz and is already considered a leading contender for Best Actress.

Is Best Actor the year’s bloodbath category?

Many believe Carey Mulligan is almost certain to win Best Actress, but the Best Actor race is much more open – there are at least seven or eight strong contenders. If *One Battle After Another* becomes the favorite to win Best Picture, Leonardo DiCaprio would likely be a top contender for his second Oscar. However, if *Sinners* emerges as the front-runner, Michael B. Jordan’s work in two roles could significantly boost his chances.

Timothée Chalamet was almost an award winner last year for his portrayal of Bob Dylan, and a strong performance in his new film, Marty Supreme, where he plays a ping-pong champion, could put him back in contention. Meanwhile, Disney and 20th Century Studios are hoping to replicate that success with their own music biopic, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, and get Jeremy Allen White recognized with an award.

As a movie lover, I’m really excited about this year’s Best Actor race! It’s full of fascinating stories both on and off screen. Dwayne Johnson is doing something completely different, taking on a really gritty role as an MMA fighter in Benny Safdie’s *The Smashing Machine* – it’s great to see action stars tackling more dramatic parts. And Daniel Day-Lewis is back! It’s his first film since 2017, and even more special because it’s directed by his son, Ronan, in a movie called *Anemone*. Then there’s George Clooney in Noah Baumbach’s *Jay Kelly* – it sounds like a really introspective look at a movie star dealing with his past, which always plays well with Oscar voters. It’s shaping up to be a really interesting category!

Jesse Plemons is receiving a lot of praise for his work in *Bugonia*. Wagner Moura has been considered a strong contender for Best Actor ever since the Cannes Film Festival for *The Secret Agent*. While Saoirse Ronan is widely expected to be nominated for Best Actress, Paul Mescal’s chances for a Best Actor nomination for *Hamnet* might depend on whether the studio, Focus Features, chooses to submit him as a supporting actor instead.

Forget about predicting the winner – the real mystery is how the Academy will even narrow down the current list of contenders to just five nominees.

Will Oscar voters rubber-stamp the season’s two big blockbusters?

For years, the Academy Awards pretty much ignored sequels – it was just assumed they weren’t ‘serious’ contenders. *The Godfather Part II* was a rare exception. Then *The Lord of the Rings* films changed things in the early 2000s, and lately we’ve seen more and more sequels like *Dune: Part Two*, *Avatar: The Way of Water*, and *Black Panther* actually competing for Best Picture. This year, it feels like that trend is really continuing! We’ve got *Wicked: For Good*, which follows up last year’s huge hit, and James Cameron is back *again* with another *Avatar* movie, titled *Fire and Ash*. It’s exciting to see the Academy potentially embracing these big franchise installments!

The last *Avatar* movie, *The Way of Water* (2022), was nominated for Best Picture, but received only four nominations total – fewer than the nine the original film earned. It seems *Fire and Ash* will need to be truly exceptional and unexpected to earn a third Best Picture nomination in a row.

While the new musical *For Good* might not struggle as much as some shows do after a year, the bigger worry is that it won’t live up to the high expectations set by *Wicked*. *Wicked* surprised everyone by being so successful, but *For Good* won’t have that advantage of exceeding low expectations.

Can we really make something happen for Weapons?

Let’s talk about a bit of a wildcard possibility for the Oscars. The summer horror hit, *Weapons*, featured a truly standout performance by Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys, and people immediately started suggesting an Oscar campaign. While some of that talk was playful, it’s not entirely far-fetched. Horror performances *have* been recognized before – think Piper Laurie in *Carrie* or Anthony Hopkins in *The Silence of the Lambs*. Recent critically acclaimed performances in horror, like Toni Collette in *Hereditary* and Florence Pugh in *Midsommar*, didn’t get nominated, but the Supporting Actress category might be more open to it. Ultimately, the Oscars would be more interesting with Amy Madigan in the mix, and she absolutely deserves consideration. Let’s try to make it happen!

2025-09-27 16:58