Why Bitcoin’s Latest Plunge is the Most Dramatic Drama Since Your Last Family Reunion

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Well, folks, hold onto your wallets because it seems CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has taken a nosedive deeper than my enthusiasm for Monday mornings. Yes, you heard that right-our beloved indicator has plunged into the depths of bearish territory, and it looks like it’s brought its suitcase packed with regrets.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator: The Most Bearish It’s Been Since That Awkward 2022 Bottom

According to some hot gossip from X (which I’m pretty sure is just Twitter wearing a new outfit), analyst Maartunn from CryptoQuant has spilled the tea on this latest trend. This illustrious metric, as the name suggests, is supposed to tell us whether the cryptocurrency market is feeling bullish or bear-ish. Spoiler alert: it’s not feeling great.

Now, if you’re wondering how we got here, let me introduce you to the P&L Index, another brainchild of CryptoQuant. This index takes a few key on-chain indicators-MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR-and throws them into a blender to create a single valuation smoothie for Bitcoin. Delicious, right? Not so much when you realize it’s actually a recipe for disappointment.

The MVRV Ratio and NUPL are all about unrealized profits and losses-basically, they’re like that friend who talks big about their stock picks but hasn’t actually sold anything yet. Meanwhile, LTH/STH SOPR deals with the “realized” profits and losses, which means they’ve finally done something productive, unlike my attempts at cooking.

CryptoQuant claims that when the P&L Index interacts with its 365-day moving average (MA), it’s a sign the asset is either throwing a party (bull market) or sulking in a corner (bear market). If it breaks above the MA, we’re in business; below? Well, you might as well get cozy with your favorite blanket and start binge-watching sad movies.

The indicator tracks the distance between the P&L Index and its long-term MA, giving us a glimpse into whether the market is experiencing an identity crisis or just needs a hug. And right now, it looks like it’s taken a dive below zero, suggesting the P&L Index is having an existential crisis.

As shown in the chart shared by Maartunn (and no, I won’t share it-I’ll let you click away and find it yourself), we’re in the red zone, where the indicator has fallen further than my hopes for a summer vacation. This drop suggests that the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA, and honestly, if it were a relationship, it would probably need some therapy.

In the past, such a crossover has often signaled a bearish shift, and it seems our trusty indicator has only gone deeper into despair since then. Let’s face it, we’re hitting low levels not seen since the spectacular crash following FTX’s grand exit.

The trend indicates that our dear P&L Index is heading toward an extreme point, and history tells us that market lows often arrive hand-in-hand with such dire values. It’s like waiting for the other shoe to drop, except this time it’s more like waiting for the whole shoe factory to collapse.

However, don’t lose hope just yet! The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tends to lounge around in the “extreme bear” zone before finding a way out-much like I do after a bad haircut. How long will it take this time? Only time will tell, and I’m guessing it’s not going to be a quick trip.

BTC Price

As of this moment, Bitcoin is floating around $68,000, down 4% in the last week. So, if you’ve been considering investing, maybe hold tight and watch for a while-like waiting for that perfect moment to jump into a pool, only to realize someone forgot to fill it up.

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2026-02-17 11:46