Markets as a Tolstoyan Satire: The Eighth Decline

by

Markets

What to know:

  • The stock Strategy (MSTR) has descended for seven consecutive months, as if winter itself refused to yield to spring and Fortune wore a fur hat to mock the sun.
  • The company’s mNAV, that stern little arithmetic of enterprise value divided by bitcoin reserves, stands at 1.09, a number that permits the selling of stock to purchase more bitcoin, like a man selling his coat to buy more coins to freeze his feet.
  • In the last market bear’s long night, in 2022, Strategy managed to rake together only $275 million, and spent it to acquire roughly 10,000 bitcoin, a treasury that would look impressive on a ledger but leaves the heart cold in a market of myths.

As February awakens its pale light, Strategy (MSTR), that firm steward of bitcoin among the listed, finds itself down 7 percent and marching toward a contemplated eighth month of decline, as if the road to prosperity were paved with frost and obstinacy.

The stock, hovering near $141, now wears a price tag that shows a fall of about 75 percent from its November 2024 crest of roughly $540, a tumble that would make even a seasoned pheasant feel dizzy.

The greater share of this descent has fallen since July, seven months in a row of niggling gloom. By the close of 2025, the price had sunk 48 percent for the year, a record’s second-worst lament; the worst year remains 2022, when the shares fell by 75 percent, leaving the ledger with that heavy, almost comic, sum of misfortune.

By comparison, the price of bitcoin has declined about 40 percent from its October all-time high. This yields a sober calculus: the gap between MSTR and bitcoin stretches to roughly 35 percent in favor of the universe’s stubborn volatility. In January, that spread widened briefly to 45 percent, a spectacle that checkonchain would deem a record not seen since 2021, provoking a wry smile from the heavens and perhaps from any observer who knows that markets love drama more than moral clarity.

The company’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV), that numerical talisman computed by dividing enterprise value by bitcoin reserves, remains above 1 at 1.09. This means Strategy can press on with selling common stock through at-the-market offerings to fund more bitcoin, as if the market’s conscience could be exhausted by a relentless tide of offerings and optimism alike.

Yet, if the stock should slip further, future bitcoin acquisitions are likely to grow smaller, like a peasant’s patience thinning as frost deepens. Should mNAV slip below 1, the company may be compelled to pause purchases and await a hopeful rebirth of appetite in the market, or perhaps in the stubborn heart of fortune itself.

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2026-02-03 16:31