Ethereum’s Stumble: A Bull’s Last Gasp or the Dawn of a New Gallop?

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Markets

What to know:

  • In the grand theater of financial folly, Ethereum’s dance with Bitcoin has become a spectacle of repetition, a tragicomic echo of the last bull’s delirious charge. The ETH–BTC ratio, like a condemned man’s last cigarette, has plummeted 31%, mirroring the prelude to a frenzy that once saw Ethereum soar 300% against its digital overlord.
  • Bitcoin, the stoic titan, trades near $78,800, while Ethereum lingers at $2,345, and gold, the eternal refuge of the timid, hovers near $4,830. Meanwhile, Asia’s equities, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225, revel in the mirage of a U.S.-India trade deal, oblivious to the crypto and precious metals markets’ convulsions.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

As the “Year of the Horse” dawns, the crypto markets resemble not a triumphant procession but a steed trapped in the starting gate, its muscles quivering after a prolonged stumble. The ETH-BTC chart, a Rorschach test for the financially hopeful, hints at a pattern seen before the last great bull run-a pattern that, like history, threatens to repeat itself as farce.

The last time Gold topped, the following happened:

– $ETH bottomed 9 months prior.
– $ETH crashed by 30-40%.

This time;
– $ETH bottomed 9 months prior
– $ETH is down 31% already.

What happened after that?

A rise of 300%+ against #Bitcoin for Ethereum and the bull market…

– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 1, 2026

The Year of the Horse, in market lore, is less a prophecy than a cruel joke. It promises speed, abrupt turns, and momentum that, once unleashed, cannot be halted. For crypto, this translates into sharper swings, faster capital rotation, and the possibility that Bitcoin’s dominance may yield to higher beta assets-if liquidity deigns to cooperate.

The ETH-BTC chart, like a stubborn mule, refuses to be ignored. Its sequence, once a harbinger of triumph, now repeats itself with the inevitability of a bad habit. In the last cycle, ETH bottomed against Bitcoin nine months before gold peaked, only to endure a brutal 30-40% decline that convinced many the game was lost. Yet, that final stumble marked the bottom. As gold cooled and fear unwound, capital flowed back into crypto, sending Ethereum soaring 300% against Bitcoin and igniting a bull market that burned bright-if briefly.

Today, the pattern is familiar, though not identical. The ETH-to-BTC chart hit a relative low nine months before gold’s recent high and has already fallen 31%, placing it in the same historical drawdown range that once preceded a violent reversal. QCP notes that traders are buying protection, but with less urgency than during last year’s selloff-a sign of caution, not panic.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s Yuxuan Tang assures us that gold’s fundamentals remain intact, a structural floor provided by central banks and institutions. This push-and-pull between safe-haven demand and crypto’s washed-out positioning gives the ETH-BTC ratio its peculiar allure. In Horse-year terms, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may no longer be limping.

Yet, the ratio is more a barometer of mood than a crystal ball. If liquidity stabilizes and Bitcoin’s dominance wanes, capital rotation could accelerate swiftly. Horses, after all, do not walk when they finally move. They gallop.

And that gallop, according to prediction markets, looks more like a run-up from current levels than a leap to new heights. Kalshi bettors predict Bitcoin will reach $105,000 in 2026, while Polymarket punters give it only a 29% chance of breaking $126,000. One can only hope this horse finishes the race-or at least doesn’t collapse mid-stride.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin trades near $78,800, its brief rebound running into thin support above $70,000. Eyes are now on the $60,000 to $65,000 zone, a long-term holder and 200-week average floor, unless U.S. equities decide to roll over like a startled dog.

ETH: Ethereum hovers near $2,345 after a short rebound from weekend selling. With steeper weekly losses than Bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious-a price drift lower seems likely unless risk appetite awakens from its slumber.

Gold: Gold trades near $4,830, attempting to stabilize after a margin-driven selloff. Elevated volatility and a firmer dollar keep the rebound fragile, a far cry from the prior uptrend’s confident stride.

Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 rose 2.4%, leading gains across Asia as optimism over a U.S.-India trade deal lifted regional sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi surged over 5%, and broader markets tracked a rebound in U.S. equities, undeterred by volatility in gold, silver, and crypto.

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2026-02-03 05:56