Will Sinners Break the All-Time Oscars Nomination Record?

With guild awards announced, box office numbers tallied, and plenty of buzz surrounding films like Timothée Chalamet’s, the Academy Award nominations are nearly here. As the nomination announcements approach, everyone starts guessing which films will make the cut. Will some potential Best Picture winners be overlooked in the Best Film Editing category? Will a well-known singer lose out on the Best Original Song award to a lesser-known track from a documentary? This year, the new Best Casting category, successful sequels to previous nominees, and a strong lineup of international films add even more uncertainty. We’ll have answers when the nominations are revealed on Thursday morning.

Will Sinners Break the All-Time Nomination Record?

Three films – All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land – share the record for the most Oscar nominations in a single year, with 14 each. This year, Sinners has a strong chance of equaling or breaking that record, especially with the addition of a new Casting category. Ryan Coogler’s film is a strong contender in many areas, from acting to technical categories like sound and makeup. It’s almost certain to be nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, and has multiple potential acting nominees: Michael B. Jordan is a likely Best Actor contender, while Wunmi Mosaku and Miles Caton were nominated for Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Delroy Lindo received an award from AARP Movies for Grownups.

Several creative guilds – representing costume designers, art directors, and makeup artists – have nominated Sinners for their awards, which often predicts Oscar wins. Additionally, cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw, editor Michael P. Shawver, and composer Ludwig Goransson are all strong contenders to win awards in their respective categories.

“I Lied to You” is almost guaranteed a nomination in the song category. While it would be unexpected, “Last Time I Seen the Sun” could also be nominated for Original Song, as that category is always hard to predict. The film’s sound design, especially the unique vampire sound effects and music, seems likely to earn a nomination. Of all the categories, Visual Effects is the only one where the film was a finalist but isn’t expected to actually receive a nomination.

Even with a limited count, the film is already looking at 13 nominations, assuming it only receives one acting nomination for Jordan and doesn’t win for visual effects. If the film also gets a nomination for its casting – which is probable – that brings the total to 14, tying the current record. A nomination for Wunmi Mosaku, either of the supporting actors, or another original song would then push it past that record and make it the most nominated film ever.

How far has Wicked fallen?

Early reactions to Wicked: For Good haven’t been as positive as those for the first Wicked movie, and ticket sales dropped off rapidly after its opening weekend. As a result, the film’s chances of winning major awards have significantly diminished. I initially thought Ariana Grande was a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress, but now I’m not even sure she’ll receive a nomination.

Okay, even with all the early chatter and leaks, Wicked: For Good is still a massive, visually stunning movie, and I think it’s going to be a strong contender for awards in technical categories. I don’t think it’ll get as many nominations as it did last year – that was a huge ten! – but I’m predicting around six or seven. It’s likely to shine in areas like Costume Design and Production Design, where the original Wicked won Oscars, and hopefully, it’ll also get recognized for Makeup/Hairstyling or Sound. Fingers crossed!

The most uncertain categories are Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Original Song. The film For Good is competing with It Was Just an Accident, Bugonia, Sirât, and F1 for one of the final nomination spots. While both original songs from For Good are contenders, “The Girl in the Bubble” is currently considered the stronger choice. Cynthia Erivo’s chances of winning Best Actress are diminishing after being overlooked at both the Actor Awards and the Golden Globes. Emma Stone (Bugonia), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) are now seen as more likely to receive a fifth nomination in that category.

Can Neon really run the table in Best International Feature?

Neon, the independent distributor, appears to have made a smart move at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. They acquired several films that were likely Oscar contenders, and this strategy is now proving successful. After receiving five nominations at the Golden Globes for Best Non-English Language Film, their titles – Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and Sirât – are now frontrunners to be nominated for the International Feature Oscar.

If any of the other films in the running are likely to unexpectedly win, I think it will be one of the two movies focusing on young girls.

Iraq has submitted The President’s Cake to be considered for awards. The film, directed and written by Hasan Hadi, tells the story of a nine-year-old boy tasked with baking a birthday cake for Saddam Hussein during the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. It was highly praised at the Cannes Film Festival in May, where Hadi won both the Directors’ Fortnight Audience Award and the Camera d’Or.

Netflix has been nominated for an International Feature Film Oscar for the past four years, and this year’s submission is Left-Handed Girl. The film tells the story of a mother and her two daughters who work in Taipei’s night markets. It gained recognition at film festivals throughout the fall and could be Taiwan’s first Oscar win since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2000.

Can It Was Just an Accident and Jafar Panahi hang on to their Cannes buzz?

A notable trend this awards season has been the strong showing of films originally made in other languages when it comes to Best Picture nominations. The Oscars have increasingly become more open to international films in recent years. This is why the Cannes Film Festival is now a key indicator of which movies might be nominated. Last year, after winning the top prize at Cannes, Iranian director Jafar Panahi’s film, It Was Just an Accident, quickly became a contender for an Oscar.

Recently, Jafar Panahi’s film has been losing ground in awards voting to other films that premiered at Cannes, like Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. It wasn’t nominated by the Producers Guild or Directors Guild, and only made one Oscar shortlist, while Sirât appeared on five. This puts It Was Just an Accident in a vulnerable position for nominations in major categories like Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. Considering Panahi’s significant presence in the awards season and the film’s quality, it would be disappointing if it didn’t receive the nominations many expected, especially given that he was recently sentenced to a year in prison in Iran.

In how many categories will Bugonia play spoiler?

While some highly anticipated films like Wicked: For Good and It Was Just an Accident have lost momentum, Bugonia has remained surprisingly strong. It generated a lot of excitement at the Venice Film Festival and, despite a gradual decrease in buzz, has continued to gain recognition. Recent nominations from the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild (for Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons), inclusion on the AFI’s top ten list, and a Producers Guild Award nomination suggest that industry voters are still very impressed with the collaboration between director Yorgos Lanthimos and actress Emma Stone. If I were involved with Wicked: For Good, or with the projects of Kate Hudson or Ethan Hawke, I’d be very worried about Bugonia right now.

How funny would it be for Diane Warren to finally miss a nomination for her own documentary?

Diane Warren, much like Conner4Real, is incredibly persistent and continues to create music. Despite being nominated for an Oscar sixteen times, she hasn’t yet won a competitive award, a record she shares with sound designer Greg P. Russell. She’s been nominated for Best Original Song in ten of the last eleven years, often for uplifting but unremarkable anthems. However, she did write the hit song “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now,” so she deserves respect. This year, she’s again a contender, but the nomination is different: the song “Dear Me” is featured in a documentary about her own life and career, called Diane Warren: Relentless. It would be quite ironic if she didn’t win this year, especially given her track record. While she’s always a strong contender in the Original Song category, the competition is fierce this year with multiple songs from films like Sinners, Wicked, Avatar, Train Dreams, F1, Come See Me in the Good Light, and the frontrunner, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters. It won’t be an easy win.

Will Nouvelle Vague be the latest black-and-white movie to captivate the cinematographers’ branch?

Over the past seven years, seven films using black-and-white have been nominated for the Best Cinematography Oscar. Interestingly, when the Academy nominates cinematography work from films not nominated for Best Picture, those films are often in black-and-white – examples include Cold War, The Lighthouse, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and El Conde. So, am I just using numbers to support my feeling that Richard Linklater’s black-and-white film, Nouvelle Vague, will also receive a cinematography nomination? Perhaps! However, Nouvelle Vague surprisingly landed a Best Musical/Comedy nomination at the Golden Globes and appeared on several other influential lists (including Cahiers du Cinema’s top ten). This suggests enough Academy voters likely requested screeners of the film, making a nomination a real possibility.

Will F1 be the most-nominated film to miss a Best Picture nomination?

Recent films that received many Oscar nominations without being nominated for Best Picture – like this year’s Nosferatu, last year’s Napoleon, and 2022’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – share some similarities: they’re all large-scale productions with an element of prestige, whether based on a classic story, important historical events, or featuring a standout performance. The new film F1 certainly fits that description. While Formula 1 racing isn’t a famous battle, it’s directed by Joseph Kosinski, who previously made the Oscar-nominated Top Gun, giving it a similar appeal. The film is also visually and aurally impressive. It’s likely to receive nominations in the same technical categories as Top Gun – Sound, Visual Effects, and Film Editing – and could also be nominated for Cinematography and Original Song.

Where can we squeeze in a nomination for The Testament of Ann Lee?

Okay, so Mona Fastvold’s film about the beginnings of the Shakers was a big hit with critics, but it hasn’t quite translated into awards momentum like her and Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist did last year. Early on, everyone was predicting a Best Actress nod for Seyfried, riding that critical praise. But then Rose Byrne started winning a lot of the pre-awards, and that changed the narrative – it’s tough to compete with that kind of buzz. It feels like the film’s Oscar chances for Seyfried have faded a bit. Still, I’m wondering if it could sneak in a nomination for Best Costume Design. There wasn’t a ton of traditional Shaker knitwear, but the Academy loves good period detail. Fun fact: in eight of the last ten years, a Best Costume Design nominee has featured a female character’s name in the title. If that trend continues this year, it’ll either be Ann Lee or Nia DaCosta’s Hedda that gets the nomination.

Will the Casting branch do the coolest thing possible?

I’d nominate Weapons. While Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys is a standout, the film’s casting overall is fantastic – Austin Abrams and Benedict Wong are particularly memorable, and the child actors are excellent. As we begin this new award category, it’s important to recognize that strong horror relies on good casting choices, and we hope the casting branch isn’t limited by pressure to only reward ‘serious’ films.

2026-01-22 01:00