Bitcoin: Is This The End? đŸ˜©

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Right. So, Bitcoin. Still a thing, apparently. Although, honestly, trying to understand it is a bit like trying to assemble IKEA furniture after three glasses of Sauvignon Blanc. Anyway, these ‘long-term holders’ – the people who presumably bought it when it was, like, a fiver – are now
 *selling*. For the third time this cycle. Honestly, the drama.

Apparently, this selling-off is crucial. It will “define the trajectory” of everything. As if. It’s probably just people needing a new handbag or something. đŸ€·â€â™€ïž

DĂ©jĂ  Vu All Over Again? (And Not The Good Kind)

Back in 2021, these long-term types started their great sell-off between November 2020 and March 2021. They got rid of 13.5% of their Bitcoin, just before the ‘peak’ (which, let’s be honest, probably went straight to their heads). Michael Nadeau, who sounds like a very important person at ‘The DeFi Report’ (whatever *that* is), reckons *that* was the actual top. The ‘true’ top. Which basically means they sold high. Good for them.

Then, predictably, they started buying it back. Because, why not? They finished the year with even *more* Bitcoin than they started with, which explains why the second ‘top’ in November 2021 was a bit
underwhelming. Honestly, it was all a bit of an internal reshuffle. Like moving furniture around in your living room and pretending it’s a whole new vibe.

And guess what? It’s happening *again*. LTHs have reduced their supply by 12.4% into what might be the first ‘true’ top of *this* cycle (Q1 2025, if you’re keeping track – though honestly, who is?). The re-accumulation phase is back, which is just
so 2021. It’s like a bad rom-com, you just know what’s coming. 🙄

But here’s the kicker. No one else is really buying. Short-term holders (STHs) are being remarkably restrained, and new money is
well, it’s not exactly flooding in. Nadeau says this lack of enthusiasm could put a damper on future price rises. Which basically translates to: “Don’t get your hopes up.”

Still Very, Very Fragile

Apparently, even ‘Glassnode’ (whoever they are) agrees it’s all a bit shaky. Modest recovery? Fragility lurking? It sounds like my dating life. 💔

The market’s pushing into ‘overbought’ territory (whatever that means), but nobody really seems convinced. Volumes are flat, and things called ‘CVD’ are weakening, which apparently means sellers are still lurking. It’s all very ominous.

Oh, and the ‘futures markets’ are a whirlwind of activity, but ‘funding’ is soft, which means people are being cautious. Which, you know, fair enough. And ‘options markets’ are telling a story of complacency. Basically, everyone is pretending everything is fine, while secretly bracing for disaster. 😬

On-chain signals are mixed (naturally). Addresses are down, transfer volumes are up, fees are declining
 it’s all very confusing. Basically, people are in profit, but they’re also thinking about selling. Which is
 a bit of a problem.

Honestly, it’s all a bit exhausting. I think I need a lie-down. And possibly a new handbag.

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2025-09-17 06:34