75% Peak TV: Ampere Analysis Talks TV Trends at the Berlinale Series Market

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At the Berlinale Series Market, Ampere Analysis’ Guy Bisson offered perspectives on the present condition and upcoming trends for television in what he terms as a “75% Peak TV era.

Through his examination, he offered a broad perspective on the direction the television industry is taking, emphasizing significant patterns and obstacles. Here, we delve back into some of Bisson’s main ideas regarding the shifting scenery in the world of television.

Peak TV is Dead, Long Live 75% Peak TV

Bisson asserted without hesitation to EbMaster that ‘Peak TV’ is past; the year 2023 established the new norm. If you examine the graph below closely for the last ten points, you’ll notice a flat line trend. This doesn’t indicate growth, but rather a 25% drop from the peak. So, we are in a market that Bisson refers to as being at 75% of ‘Peak TV’. We have now stabilized at this 75% level.

Bisson’s finding emphasizes a major transformation in the television world. We’ve seemingly hit the pinnacle of Peak TV, a period overflowing with premium fictional programming. Now, it appears the market has settled around 75% of its pandemic-era peak, suggesting a new standard for the industry moving forward.

Broadcastification of Streaming

Additionally, we’re dealing with a situation that closely pertains to theater and high-quality television series, which I refer to as the ‘streaming broadcast’. This refers to the trend of making content more suitable for traditional broadcasters, putting pressure on these established players due to the significant shift in audience preference towards global streaming platforms.

Bisson proposed the idea of “broadcastification,” which refers to streaming services gradually adopting tactics similar to those used by broadcast television. This change is being fueled by factors such as market congestion, investor pressure for profitability, and the necessity to keep subscribers. A notable sign of this transformation, apart from the integration of advertisements across most streaming platforms, is a growing focus on live sports programming among streamers. Over the past five years, streamers have more than doubled their investment in sports content. Bisson speculated that if they fully embrace the role of broadcasters and allocate 30% of their budgets to sports, what will be remaining for traditional media companies?

Unscripted

According to Bisson, the strategies for streaming content are becoming more similar to those used by traditional broadcasters. In fact, there is a lot more unscripted content now. Five years ago, about a third of their original productions were unscripted. Today, that number has doubled, making up half of their total.

This trend indicates a shift in strategy, as streaming platforms aim to expand their content variety and draw in a wider viewer base. As stated by Bisson, only one genre of scripted television is currently increasing, and this growing preference among streamers might pose challenges for traditional broadcasters. “Crime is the only TV genre displaying growth right now,” noted Bisson, “and it’s worth mentioning that crime procedurals have traditionally been the staple of national broadcast television. However, we’ve observed a significant increase in activity within streamers.

The Impact of Market Saturation

Bisson noted that growth on streaming platforms had become challenging due to market saturation, meaning there were few new subscribers left. He added that as the industry was running low on fresh customers, there was increased pressure from investors for profit, cost-cutting measures, and customer retention. This was because, particularly in affluent markets, the streaming sector had become congested.

The argument suggests that market saturation has led to significant changes in the strategies employed by streaming services. Faced with mounting challenges in achieving growth, these platforms are now prioritizing profitability and customer retention over expansion. This shift is evident in the growing number of show renewals while original productions are being commissioned less frequently. In essence, distributors are opting to stick with proven content and taking fewer risks.

The Future of High-End Drama

According to Bisson, there’s been a decrease in the significance of high-end dramas for streaming platforms. He believes that commissioners will progressively reduce the number of new series they order and lean towards producing more daring, superior-quality content instead, focusing on quality rather than quantity.

According to Bisson’s assessment, there appears to be a significant change in the focus of streaming platforms as they shift away from prioritizing high-end drama in their content strategies, marking a departure from the Peak TV era. While Bisson doesn’t predict the demise of high-end television entirely, it seems that fewer new series of this nature will appear on both streaming and traditional broadcast channels.

Collaboration Across Ecosystems

In Bisson’s view, working together across various media landscapes is essential when considering market strategies, given that streaming services, channels, and video platforms are all vying for the same audience. Bisson argues that these relationships don’t have to be adversarial and suggests that traditional broadcasters can greatly benefit from learning tactics employed by international industry leaders.

As a local broadcaster, I won’t transform into YouTube, given my regionally limited distribution and the regional nature of my broadcast license. However, I can certainly benefit from learning techniques and collaborating with international organizations that excel in streamlining global ad sales. Perhaps it would be wise to consider such partnerships.

Survival of the Fittest: The Importance of Adaptability

Based on Bisson’s perspective, it’s simple to adopt a pessimistic viewpoint and foresee a gloomy future for broadcasters. With video hosting platforms becoming incredibly popular, as shown in the graph below, even well-known streamers might struggle with irrelevance in the face of giants like YouTube and TikTok.

According to Bisson, it’s easy to think that broadcasters will have a hard time surviving because video hosting platforms are becoming so popular. Even big streamers could become less important compared to platforms like YouTube and TikTok. (Graph provided)

He clarified, “I’m suggesting that our understanding of thinking has some flaws. We should reconsider how we define ecosystems within media and entertainment. The Darwinian theory suggests ‘survival of the fittest,’ but this doesn’t always mean the biggest, most powerful, or richest companies will dominate. Instead, fitness for survival is about adapting to thrive under specific pressures, not necessarily being big or strong. In other words, it’s about an entity’s ability to prosper in its unique environment.

According to Bisson’s viewpoint, it’s crucial for media firms to prosper within their particular and, especially, local environments. Winning isn’t just about having plenty of money, but rather the capacity to handle and adjust to the unique challenges of a specific market. In this scenario, established distributors might have a significant edge over global giants.

Wrapping Up

As a movie enthusiast, I can’t help but see Bisson’s insights as a beacon guiding the path of TV’s tomorrow. With the industry constantly shifting gears, ideas like broadcastification, market saturation, and collaboration between ecosystems will become key players in determining the moves made by media companies. By adapting to these trends, we can successfully steer through the challenges that lie ahead and keep the industry vibrant amidst a world of perpetual change.

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2025-02-17 12:18