2025 Tokens: A Bloodbath of Bubbles 🩸

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Key Highlights

  • 84.7% of 2025 token launches are trading below their TGE valuation, signaling widespread post-launch losses. A veritable carnival of despair, where investors weep into their coffee cups, wondering if they’ve been sold a ticket to a phantom train.
  • Median performance is down 71% in FDV, showing sharp value erosion shortly after launch. One might say the market has a penchant for dramatic exits, much like a tragic opera with no encore.
  • Only 15% of tokens are above TGE, with ASTEN standing out as a rare outperformer. A lone star in a sky of financial black holes, it shines with the arrogance of a cryptocurrency sorcerer who’s mastered the art of inflation.
  • 84.7% of 2025 token launches are trading below their TGE valuation, signaling widespread post-launch losses. A veritable carnival of despair, where investors weep into their coffee cups, wondering if they’ve been sold a ticket to a phantom train.
  • Median performance is down 71% in FDV, showing sharp value erosion shortly after launch. One might say the market has a penchant for dramatic exits, much like a tragic opera with no encore.
  • Only 15% of tokens are above TGE, with ASTEN standing out as a rare outperformer. A lone star in a sky of financial black holes, it shines with the arrogance of a cryptocurrency sorcerer who’s mastered the art of inflation.

Token launches in 2025 have handed investors a cold wake-up call. Data compiled by Memento Research shows that the vast majority of new tokens are trading below their Token Generation Event (TGE) valuations, reinforcing growing skepticism around whether “early” still means opportunity in today’s market. It’s as if the market has declared war on optimism, with every token launch a doomed romance between hope and a brick wall.

2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath

Tracked 118 TGE launches this year and compared today’s FDV vs opening:
• 84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation
• This means ~4 out of 5 launches are below their opening valuation
• Median token is -71% FDV (-67% MC) from…

– Ash (@ahboyash) December 20, 2025

A year of underwhelming launches

According to analysis shared by Ash from Memento Research, 2025 TGEs have been, in his words, a “bloodbath.” Out of 118 token launches tracked this year, 100 tokens, or 84.7%, are now trading below their TGE valuation. In practical terms, roughly four out of every five launches have failed to hold their opening price. One might say the market has a cruel sense of humor, akin to a puppeteer pulling strings while the puppets scream.

The median tells the real story, and it isn’t pretty. Across the shared document in an X post by Wu Blockchain, median FDV is down 71% from TGE, while median market cap has fallen 67%. Just 18 tokens, roughly 15% of launches, are still trading above their opening valuation. A rare few, like a phoenix in a swamp, defy the odds-though even they might be wearing a mask of gold.

What the data covers and what it doesn’t

The dataset focuses on larger projects with confirmed centralized exchange listings, rather than obscure or illiquid launches. TGE prices reflect a mix of DEX and CEX opening prices, with a possible ±10% variance due to data availability. Sources include on-chain data, CoinGecko, and CoinMarketCap. It’s a mosaic of truth, though one might question if the pieces are merely reflecting the biases of a particularly jaded oracle.

In other words, this is not a cherry-picked list of failed experiments. It reflects what happened to many of the year’s most visible and well-funded launches. A testament to the adage: “The more you invest, the more you’re likely to lose.”

ASTEN cuts through the wreckage

One token did not get buried in the carnage. ASTEN, tied to the Aster ecosystem, stands out as the strongest launch tracked by Memento Research in 2025. A beacon in the fog, it’s like a rogue comet that forgot to burn out.

Its numbers explain why. ASTEN now carries an FDV near $5.7 billion, with about $300 million in daily trading volume. Since TGE, its FDV is up roughly 744.6%, an extreme outlier in a year where most charts never recovered. It’s as if ASTEN has discovered the secret to eternal youth, while the rest of the market is stuck in a time loop of despair.

What is actually driving the numbers

ASTEN’s performance has coincided with continued product development. Earlier this week, Aster announced the launch of “Shield Mode” on its decentralized perpetuals platform. The feature introduces a protected trading environment that allows up to 1001x leverage on BTC and Ethereum (ETH), zero slippage, no gas fees, and concealed trade intent by avoiding public order books. A marvel of modern finance, it’s like a magician’s trick that leaves the audience both awed and slightly terrified.

While extreme leverage is not for everyone, the release reinforced ASTEN’s positioning as an active, evolving trading venue rather than a static token story. In today’s market, liquidity is selective and valuations don’t get a free pass. Most new tokens are failing to live up to their launch prices, while a few winners stand alone as rare exceptions. It’s a world where only the bold survive, and even they might be plotting their next move with a sly grin.

For investors, 2025 has delivered a blunt lesson: buying at TGE is no longer an easy path to upside. It now requires real traction, sustained demand, and patience in a market that has little mercy left. A fitting end to a year where even the most optimistic soul might question if they’ve stumbled into a dystopian tale written by a drunk bard.

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2025-12-20 22:59