📉 Bitcoin Prepares for a Mel Brooks Rewilding! 💸😂

by

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent of the structure from the first quarter of 2022. Well, well, well, who would’ve guessed?

Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market

In its latest weekly report-because, you know, things aren’t exciting enough yet-Glassnode has discussed how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability. And just for fun, let’s pretend we knew what we’re doing!

In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit-which sounds good until you start screaming “Mephisto!” because your entire life savings evaporate. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively. Like finding the Leftovers-of-your-Big-Bang investment!

It’s visible in the graph (brace yourself) that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode. It almost reads like “Blazing Saddles” in Wall Street talk.

BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss. As its name suggests, it measures the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss. Wow, just who could’ve guessed?

As displayed in the graph (dramatic music, please), the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week-breaking its impression of being a Long-Lost Mel Brooks character. That’s the highest it’s been since September 2023, which is, in Bitcoin years, more than two fortnights ago. That’s creepy!

The analytics firm noted: “The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M-7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above. It’s like Bitcoin has been hit by the Chickenetta!”

Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)-a metric that mostly consists of long-term members of the Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys-also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders-no, not like the last days of the J.F.K. administration, though that would be more entertaining-are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort. Good thing it’s still funny, but then again, there are only so many “Springtime for Hitler” jokes one can make before raid calls.

It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long-hopefully with enough jokes to go around.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800. And that, my crypto-friends, is why you should always keep a rubber chicken by your wristwatch in case of a downturn. Or at least a “Young Frankenstein” Blu-ray!

Read More

2025-12-05 09:07