Bitcoin is currently found trading at around $43,000 and trading within a range between $40K and $48K since the beginning of December. This takes place less than a month after a landmark decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
In a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s price as of late, DecenTrader gives an opinion and an outlook on what’s currently going on with BTC and where it might be headed in the not-so-distant future.
Sell the News: The Bitcoin ETF Approval
According to the analysis, part of the reason why Bitcoin hit almost $49K earlier in January was the approval of the ETF on January 11th.
That fact, according to DecenTrader, presented three precise reasons to sell. These include the arrival at a technical target from a “Cup and Handle” pattern bottom, the 61.8% bear market retracement, as well as the fact that the news was largely a sell-the-news event.
Bitcoin’s price went on to decline, largely assisted by the outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust – the GBTC. Recall that investors in GBTC had no way of unlocking their funds prior to the approval of the ETF. Once that became a reality, they proceeded to sell, causing downward pressure on the price.
The Bitcoin Halving: An Important Consideration
Now that the Bitcoin price has seemingly stabilized, it’s also important to acknowledge another major catalyst in 2024: the BTC halving.
Analyzing its potential impact on the price, DecenTrader says that if we are to assume buying interest sometime before the happening:
This would mean that Bitcoin has around 30 days from now (Feb 2) to meander through its corrective phase before finding the FOMO demand anticipated.
In addition, the analysts also say that the downside risk is somewhat limited precisely because of the halving.
Will Bitcoin Reach an All-Time High in 2024?
The analysts outline that they believe this cycle will be no different from previous ones and that cryptocurrency historically takes 220 to 240 days following the halving to break a new all-time high.
I am expecting a similar outlook, with Bitcoin taking a trip to new all-time highs in mid to late Q4 of 2024, which gives some time for a correction to test investor’s resolve inbetween.
That said, the report also warns of incoming choppy price action and “some additional FOMO towards the $49K level.” This is where they also expect another sell-the-news event.
Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries the risk of capital loss. Readers are strongly advised to consult with a financial expert before making any decision that may or may not be related to the content above.
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