As an experienced financial analyst, I believe that this week’s economic calendar in the United States could significantly impact both traditional markets and crypto markets. While the data releases may not be as high-profile as some previous weeks, they could still provide valuable insights into the direction of the U.S. economy and influence investor confidence.
As a market analyst, I’ve observed an upturn in the crypto market since the weekend. The total market capitalization has experienced a growth of approximately 4%. This surge can primarily be attributed to Bitcoin‘s performance, which regained its footing above $63,000 during Asian trading hours on Monday morning.
As an analyst, I would express it this way: The upcoming economic calendar for the remainder of this week is relatively light in terms of major reports. However, these releases could provide valuable insights into the trajectory of the US economic recovery.
As a financial analyst, I can tell you that the release of U.S. employment statistics could significantly affect the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions this year. In turn, such monetary policy decisions might cause ripples in the cryptocurrency market as investors regain confidence in riskier assets.
Economic Calendar July 1-5
On Mondays upcoming, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June will be unveiled. This index derived from surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing firms offers insights into the health of this sector and serves as a significant economic barometer. It assists in evaluating current economic conditions and anticipating emerging trends.
An upcoming ISM Services PMI report, akin to the one released previously, will be unveiled on Wednesday, shedding light on the health of the U.S. services sector, which accounts for over 70% of the country’s economic output. Swings in these reports frequently serve as early indicators of broader economic trends.
Key Events This Week:
1. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday
2. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday
3. JOLTs Jobs Data – Tuesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
5. Stock Market Closed – Thursday
6. June Jobs Report data – Friday
We have a short but very busy week…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2024
As an analyst, I would express it this way: I’ll be closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the European Central Bank conference on Tuesday. Additionally, the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting on Wednesday will offer valuable insights into the perspectives of central bankers regarding inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic landscape.
As an analyst, I closely monitor unemployment data releases, which are scheduled for Friday. The Federal Reserve uses this information to assess the current state of the economy.
As an analyst, I would interpret central bank policymakers’ statements as acknowledging that with inflation showing signs of improvement, their focus has shifted towards monitoring employment figures closely. Should unemployment unexpectedly surge, the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to act more decisively and bring forward their anticipated interest rate cuts, the first of which is projected for September.
However, jobless claims continue to rise, according to the Kobeissi Letter.
Is the US labor market at an inflection point?
The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached a peak of 1,840,000 during the week ending on June 15th, marking the highest figure since the beginning of this year.
At the same time, the 4-week moving average rose to 236,000, the highest since September 2023.
This is also evident in…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2024
Crypto Market Impact
If the economic data released from the United States is favorable, it’s anticipated that the crypto markets will gradually bounce back.
Since late February, the markets have mostly stayed within a narrow band in terms of their total capitalization, hovering around the $2.5 trillion mark. Last week, however, saw a significant downturn causing the markets to touch the lower limit of this range.
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has experienced a gain of approximately 3%, hitting a new peak of $63,300 – its highest point in more than a week.
Ethereum prices gained a similar amount, reaching $3,483 ahead of key ETF announcements this week.
The colors of the altcoin graph were predominantly green. Notable advances were recorded by Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), and Near Protocol (NEAR).
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2024-07-01 10:55