Did RFK Jr. Really ‘Drop Out’? Polymarket Bettors Argue Over Contract Resolution

As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in predictive markets, I’ve seen my fair share of twists and turns. This week, three intriguing questions have caught my attention: RFK Jr.’s campaign, Telegram’s Pavel Durov’s detention, and the ongoing Mpox outbreak.

Last week concluded, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he was temporarily halting his presidential bid and expressed support for Donald Trump. He contended that due to the “suppression of information” and manipulation in the media, there was no viable route to victory for him.

But did he really drop out?

The topic under debate among Polymarket bettors, both in the comments section and Discord server, currently revolves around an attempt to supersede UMA, a decentralized oracle platform responsible for resolving disputes. One group is advocating for this overrule.

At every level, candidates seldom end their election efforts. Instead, they often choose to temporarily pause or halt them, which has been a longstanding tradition. The reason behind this practice is that they can continue to accept financial contributions.

A paused campaign can continue to accept donations as, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) regulations, pausing a campaign does not equate to its legal termination. Frequently, candidates will maintain their fundraising operations even after suspending their campaigns, like Rick Santorum in 2012, who stopped his campaign due to depleted funds but kept the framework to raise money to repay debts.

It’s worth mentioning that Kennedy’s campaign is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy following its repayment of $1 million to its running mate, who had been consistently funding the entire enterprise.

Indeed, suspension doesn’t imply the end of the campaign; rather, it means that Kennedy remains on the ballot in 23 states. Just like John McCain temporarily halted his 2008 campaign to deal with the financial crisis, only to restart it later to carry on his run for president.

At first glance, Kennedy’s action seems unlikely, but remember, the probability of Joe Biden leaving the race was also considered slim at some point.

The key problem lies in the phrasing of the Polymarket agreement, where it referred to an action as a “withdrawal,” when in actuality, it should have been termed as a “suspension.”

Telegram’s Pavel Durov will probably not be released this month

Over the weekend, Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, was taken into custody in France. The authorities claim that his app’s lenient moderation policy has made both the platform and him indirectly responsible for any harmful activities that may have been coordinated or shared on it.

Telegram, for its part, says its moderation practices were in line with industry norms.

For the near future, Durov is expected to spend time inside a jail cell, as indicated by bets on Polymarket. On Monday morning in New York, shares for a contract predicting his release by August 31 were selling at $0.37, suggesting that the market believes there’s only a 37% likelihood of it occurring.

Each share gives you $1 worth of USDC (a digital currency that typically matches the value of one U.S. dollar) if the forecast turns out to be correct, but nothing otherwise. These transactions are coded into smart contracts, which are essentially self-executing software programs, on the Polygon blockchain.

People placing bets might be considering the chance that Durov, a highly affluent individual, could find ways to leave France and return to the United Arab Emirates, where he holds citizenship, due to his substantial resources.

In the United Arab Emirates, the law prohibits the extradition of its own nationalities. However, non-citizens can be extradited, as demonstrated by a recent instance where an Italian businessman was returned to Italy following a request from Rome.

Despite being both a citizen of the United Arab Emirates and Canada, Binance’s Changpeng Zhao was labeled as a potential “flight risk” due to certain circumstances, even though he willingly showed up in the United States.

It might be that Durov is set for an extended stay.

No mpox pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently classified Monkeypox, now known as Mpox, as a global health emergency on August 14. Those who trade on Kalshi, a legitimate prediction market platform based in the U.S., have a positive outlook that the situation will be contained and stabilize.

If someone’s recall of medical terms from early 2020 is hazy: The World Health Organization (WHO) describes a health emergency as a situation that potentially threatens public health and necessitates prompt action, whereas a pandemic refers to a widespread epidemic of a disease affecting numerous people across various countries or continents.

On the platform Kalshi, people are estimating that there’s only about a 13% likelihood that the current health situation will escalate into a full-blown pandemic by the end of the year.

On Polymarket, many people placing bets are uncertain that the U.S. will have a confirmed case by September 30, assigning it a likelihood of approximately 38%.

The market might be processing the understanding that monkeypox isn’t equivalent to Covid-19. Although a fresh variant is on the rise in Africa, specialists deem it less worrisome as it predominantly spreads through close bodily contact, reducing its chances of widespread propagation compared to airborne Covid-19.

Notably, a vaccine has been developed for high-risk groups within the United States, and it’s currently being distributed throughout Europe as well.

Bettors have also ruled out a lab leak as the cause of the latest mpox outbreak, giving it only a 5% chance of this explanation being confirmed by officials.

As an analyst, I found myself initially dismissing the lab leak hypothesis regarding the origins of the Covid-19 virus, categorizing it as a fringe conspiracy theory during the early days of the pandemic. However, as time passed and the Overton window expanded, even reputable outlets like The New York Times began to publish opinion pieces suggesting that it’s increasingly plausible that Covid may have accidentally leaked from a lab.