Bitcoin is Pricing in Two Fed Rate Cuts For 2024, Trader Says

Bitcoin held its ground against a tough CPI report and high inflation numbers, dipping only to $67,000 after the Fed’s meeting minutes were released, according to Semir Gabeljic, Capital Formation Director at Pythagoras Investments, in an email update. The decline of 2% from Bitcoin’s previous test at $73,000 indicates that investors now anticipate just two interest rate reductions for the rest of 2024 instead of the earlier projected three.

On the decentralized forecasting platform, Polymarket, there appears to be an equal distribution of opinions among bettors regarding the total number of interest rate reductions by the end of 2024.

Approximately a quarter of bettors wagered on the possibility of one cut, while around one in three predicted two cuts, and nearly one fifth placed their bets on no cuts whatsoever.

During the same time frame, Jun-Young Heo, a derivatives trader at Presto in Singapore, noted that the market bounced back swiftly following the unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, contrasting the sluggish reactions of gold and the S&P 500 index.

Heo pointed out that the expected volatility for options set to expire on April 26th remains higher than normal, even as historical volatility continues to decrease.