The ruble rate has set to a minimum since April

The ruble is falling in relation to the dollar for the seventh day

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The currency of Russia is weakening the seventh session with respect to the dollar on the eve of the first meeting of the Central Bank for monetary policy this year. The shares are ready to fall for the third day. The ruble decreases by 0.6% at the auction in Moscow to 72,7600/$.

The ruble remains under pressure due to the ceiling of oil prices, and the increase in the sales of the currency by the Ministry of Finance serves as a counterweight to this weakness, according to Gazprombank.

“We believe that the Central Bank will save the key rate at the current level of 7.5% at a meeting on Friday, taking into account lower inflation expectations in January, ” said Pavel Biryukov, an economist of the bank.

The ruble decreases by 0.7% in relation to Yuan to 10.7430, falls by 1.1% in relation to the euro to 78,2275. The index of Russian government bonds has not changed much by 128.68. The Moscow Exchange index of Russia loses 0.2% to 2,247.29. The index fell on Wednesday after the First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov invited large companies to make a one-time contribution to the budget, and now “the market is waiting for the situation, ” analysts of Sinara investment bank in a note. Brent adds 0.2% to $85.28 per barrel.

The trading range for a pair for the dollar/ruble for the next week is 70-75 rubles ./BSH 1, says Georgy Vashchenko, deputy director of the analytical department of Freedom Finance Global.

“The observed weakening of the ruble is mainly associated with a jump in demand. There is a lack of dollar liquidity (as it was at the end of December, but now the situation is better), and this leads to an increase in the USD/RUB course. Also, the dollar is slightly strengthened on the FRS. There is no strong pressure on the ruble, I expect that a pair of USD/RUB will be in the range of 70-75 rubles. /$1 the coming week, and as soon as the demand decreases, it will go to the lower boundary of this range. “

According to Interfax-Tsaa experts, the ruble weakens due to the introduction of a ceiling of prices for Russian oil and oil products. The decline has also strengthened the discussion of the possibility of payments to the budget in the Windfall Tax format. A serious deficit of the federal budget forced the authorities to talk about a one -time business. A one -time voluntary fee to the budget from the profits received in the financially successful 2022, so far in the stage of discussion with the business.

A number of banks allow an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank on Friday

Rosbank sees 25% -30% probability of raising the rate in Russia this Friday

Rosbank analysts note in a note that “the picture looks too complicated and ambiguous to increase the key rate this week. ““A pronounced acceleration of the weekly growth in inflation is perplexed, but so far we see in this only a reason to tighten the tone” of the statement of the Central Bank.

St. Petersburg Bank also believes that strengthening price pressure increases the risks of increasing the key rate of the Central Bank at the next meeting on February 10.

“Published on Wednesday evening, data from Rosstat indicated the maintenance of the unemployment level in December at a historical minimum of 3.7% (a forecast of 4.0%) and to accelerated from 7.9% g/g to 10.5% of g/g fallretail sales (forecast -9.5% g/g), they say at the bank. “Such data remind of the weakness of consumer demand in December, which, however, is now noticeably restored. This process is also reflected in price statistics. So, traditional weeklyInflation data yesterday indicated an acceleration of prices from 0.21% H/N to 0.26% n/n. In annual terms, inflation accelerated from 11.6% g/g to 11.7% g/g “.

Economists interviewed by Bloomberg are unanimous in the forecast that the Bank of Russia will retain its base rate at the level of 7.5% on Friday.

Previously, Bloomberg wrote this week that a certain executive authority presses on the Central Bank in order to reduce bets to stimulate growth. The Bank of Russia immediately denied these statements, calling them speculation and attempts to manipulate.

Most Russian analysts are not yet waiting for a decrease in the key rate but allow this in the future in 2023. The Bank of Russia, most likely, will retain the key rate at the current level of 7.5% per annum at the meeting on February 10, wrote the chief analyst of the Socialist Republic of Socialist Republic Mikhail Vasiliev on February 7. So far, the dynamics of inflation does not require an increase in the rate, but the index risks increase, the expert admits. However, in favor of maintaining a key rate at the current level, the slowdown in inflation and a decrease in inflation expectations are.

The Central Bank will maintain a rate of 7.5%, it is predicted by SBERCIB Investment Research analysts. Affairs of other factors holding the inflation, they note a decrease in inflation expectations in January, increase in loans and deposits of banks against the background of an increase in OFZ revenues, as well as increasing credit organizations of claims for borrows.

“The tonality of the CBU comments is likely to remain tough due to the preservation of inflation risks that can be realized later this year, ” analysts emphasize.

VTB analysts of the same opinion. In their opinion, the main derivational risks were implemented from the previous meeting: the budget deficit according to the results of 2022 and in January 2023 was higher than the expectations, the export price for Russian oil in December-January decreased to $50/barrel, imported exceeded the forecasts of the Bank of Russia. “In this regard, the Central Bank will revise the forecast for the surplus of the current account towards a serious reduction, ” said VTB experts. They also pay attention to the acceleration of the current inflation rate, taking into account seasonality.

Gazprombank economists also do not expect changes against the background of positive trends in current statistics: improving the inflationary expectations of the population, maintaining restrained demand, poor inflationary pressure and restoration of external supply. The negative component, in their opinion, is formed by increasing inflationary risks: the presence of savings for the rapid growth of consumption, significant growth of budget expenditures, an overheated labor market, and possible restrictions on the restoration of internal supply.

Economists “Renaissance Capital”, on the contrary, are waiting for a neutral (expectant) signal from the Central Bank. Analysts of Sinara investbank also do not see good arguments to tighten the DCT now. At the same time, they are waiting for an increase in the rate in the first half of 2023. Analysts of Raiffeisenbank, Alfa-Bank, RSKHB Asset Management, BCS, Council of Council of People’s Commissars and Russian Standard Bank are also waiting for the Central Bank rate on Friday at 7.5%.

The Bank “St. Petersburg” gave the forecast of the ruble exchange rate for the medium term

Probably weakening of the ruble up to 72 rubles ./$1 in the medium -term perspective – Bank “St. Petersburg”

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

Probably weakening of the ruble up to 72 rubles ./$1 in the medium term, according to the Bank “St. Petersburg”.

“The USD/RUB course grew up on Thursday morning to 73.1 rubles. /$1, updating the maximum of the end of April. Other EM currencies have been moving multidirectional in the morning. By analogy with the situation in December, on February 5, sanctions on Russian oil products are likely, probably, led to a temporary decrease in the export revenues of the Russian Federation, which affects the dynamics of the ruble.

Against this background, in the near future, risks of growth of the USD/RUB course towards 74 rubles/ $1 are preserved. Nevertheless, as exporters adapt to new restrictions and against the background of yuan sales, according to the budget rule, the USD/RUB rate will probably decrease by 72 rubles/ $1 in the medium term, ”the bank experts write.

PSB called the range to reduce the ruble exchange rate on Thursday

The ruble will continue to weaken within the range of 73-75 rubles. /Bolsho 1 at auction on Thursday – PSB

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The ruble, most likely, will continue to weaken within the range of 73-75 rubles. /$1 at auction on Thursday, said Yegor Zhilnikov, chief analyst of the department of economic and industry analysis (PSB).

“Trading activity of the dollar with calculations of“ tomorrow ”increased, while the couple of the dollar -ruble strengthened its growth, ” the specialist notes. “We believe that specimeners have activated that playing a decrease in the oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation – the introduction of a ceiling of oil prices, as well as earthquakesIn Turkey, violations of supply chains were caused. We note that from the beginning of May, the Chinese Yuan was traded from the Maximums, despite the three -fold increase in Yuan’s sales by the Ministry of Finance. We believe that its confident positions in the global arena were additional support for the currency. “

The expert believes that a pair of a dollar/ruble can inertia inertia inertia in a range of 73-75 rubles. /$1 in the framework of the nearest bidding.

Sberbank named the purpose of reducing the ruble exchange rate on Thursday

The ruble will continue to decrease to the level of 74 rubles ./$1 – Sbercib

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The ruble can cheaper up to 74 rubles ./$1 on Thursday, the Sbercib Investment Research comment said.

“The ruble on Wednesday began to give up positions and in the evening weakened up to 72.3 rubles ./$1. On Thursday morning, in conditions of low liquidity, the national vascular retreated to 73.3 rubles ./$1, updating local minimums. Apparently, as in December, exporters are in no hurry to increase the offer of the currency, waiting for more profitable levels. The ruble on Thursday by evening, when the liquidity of the market decreases again, may cheaper to 74 rubles ./$1, ”says Sberbank experts.

Brent barrel on Wednesday has risen in price by $1.27 to $85.11/barrel. Due to the increase in oil demand by American refineries. On Thursday morning, oil quotes are held near the levels achieved. Analysts expect that during the day the price of oil Brent will remain about $85/barrel.

The profitability of OFZ with a fixed coupon on Thursday, according to experts, will increase, since investors will begin to play the increased risk of lifting the Bank of Russia in the coming months.

The dollar found support from the Fed

Unlike Powell, his deputies sound more tough

The schedule of the dollar index in intervals of 15 minutes

The US dollar hesitated around the middle of recent ranges in relation to the main currencies on Thursday, since investors digested comments on many officials of the federal reserve system, while important data on consumer inflation will be published next week.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar sensitive to risk has grown against the background of the growth of futures on American promotions and a more aggressive position of the backup bank. New Zealand dollar also grew up.

The transition to the rate on federal funds in the range from 5.00% to 5.25% “seems to be a very reasonable view of what we will need to do this year in order to reduce the imbalance of supply and demand, ” said New York FRB presidentJohn Williams at the Wall Street Journal.

Williams’s comments followed the statement of the chairman of Jerome Powell about maintaining his forecast on the interest rate on Tuesday, when he confirmed that the disinflation process was ongoing.

The dollar index, which measures the American currency in relation to six competitors, decreased by 0.13% to 103.32, retreating from the monthly maximum 103.96, which he reached on Tuesday at the peak of growth after the release of more powerful than expected than expected, employment report. At the same time, the 103rd level provided solid soil underfoot all week.

Employment data initially caused the expectations that the Fed could return to the aggressive monetary policy, but Powell was not inclined to this in his speech.

Investors will carefully monitor consumer price inflation on Tuesday in order to get additional clues about the prospects of politics.

The OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said that the reckoning pace of the dollar demonstrates the initial signs of slowdown, but the currency still receives some support from the Fed’s assumptions that the increase in bets will continue.

“On the one hand, Powell’s comments in the Washington economic club the night before were less hawks, but, on the other hand, the Fed’s officials, such as Williams (and the Federal Council Deputy FRS) Lisa Cook, took the opportunity to strengthen hawk rhetoric, ” Wong said.

Market prices suggest that the rate of the Fed Foundations will reach the maximum just above 5.1% by July, and then fall by the end of the year to 4.8%.

The euro grew by 0.18% to 1.07325 dollars, rolling back from a monthly minimum of $1.067, which he reached on Tuesday, as he continued to find support in the hawk comments of two German officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday.

“From my point of view, today we need further, significant increase in bets, ” said the head of the Central Bank of Germany, Joachim Nagel, Boersen -Seitung on Tuesday.

His colleague Isabelle Schnebel said that it is not yet clear whether the increase in ECB bets will lead to the return of inflation to 2%.

Japanese yen has not changed at 131.455 per dollar, while the pound sterling was last bargaining with a increase of 0.1% to $1.2087.

The Australian dollar grew by 0.49% to $0.6958, while the New Zealand dollar grew by 0.66% to $0.63485.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters 

Indian refinery buy dirhams of the UAE to pay for Russian oil

RELAANCE, BPCL among buyers using the UAE currency to buy Russian oil. Companies use dirhams in an attempt to circumvent sanctions

Reliance Industries Ltd. , Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. and Nayara Energy Ltd. They are one of the Indian oil refineries using the UAE dirhas to pay for some supplies of Russian oil in Western sanctions.

According to people directly aware in this matter, buyers transferred some operations to the Arab currency. Payments vary from cargo to cargo, partially depending on the requirements of specific traders, people who wished to remain unnamed, since the details are confidential.

Reliance, BPCL and Nayara did not immediately respond to comments.

The recent ban on the European Union on the import of oil products from Russia made India an increasingly important buyer of these parties. Russia has become the largest supplier of raw oil to India since June, since the goods previously sent to Europe were redirected to Asia – they were often sold at a price significantly lower than $60 per barrel.

India longs for Russian oil. Russia replaced Iraq and Saudi Arabia as the main supplier of India. Source: Professor

The UAE dirham provides both Indian buyers and Russian sellers with respect to the predictable currency tied to the dollar without possible complications associated with the sanctions of the dollar. Even in transactions that do not directly violate the restrictions of the United States and the EU, some intermediary banks often take additional steps to avoid any risks for other banking relations abroad.

India is the second largest UAE trading partner, and officials are working on a mechanism for increasing the trade in dirhams and rupees.

Most oil transactions are still in dollars. The Minister of Oil of India said that he did not know anything about the use of dirhams when buying oil.

“If you officially ask me if I know about these payment channels, then no, I don’t know, ” said Hardip Singh Puri in an interview on Monday in Bangalore. According to him, officials are open to discuss this issue with other countries. “If there is a need, we will need to talk. “

According to Vandana Hari, the founder of Vanda Insights, India is probably ready to satisfy Russia’s requests for payment in dirhams, taking into account favorable oil prices.

Nevertheless, the rejection of the US dollar can cause the anger of some officials in Washington. Last week, a senior official of the US Department of Finance for sanctions Brian Nelson visited Abu Dhabi, expressing concern about close financial

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on Bloomberg materials

The ruble falls to the dollar sixth in a row

The ruble is ready for the lowest closure for a month in relation to the dollar

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The ruble is weakening the sixth session with respect to the dollar and is moving to the longest series of losses since December. The Russian currency may fall in relation to the euro for the first time in four days. The ruble decreased by 0.6% at the auction in Moscow to 71.5875/$.

The USDRUB pair is likely to test 72-73 in the short term, since the ruble trajectory continues to be determined by the trading balance, even taking into account the sales of yuan according to the budget rule, said the analyst of the Opening Investment Alexander Shurakov.

“Reducing the supply of foreign currency by exporters and an increase in demand for foreign currency amid a significant increase in ruble liquidity from the state forms the conditions for weakening the ruble, ” he said in a note.

Yuan sales only smooth out the weakness of the Russian currency, without preventing its fall. The ruble fell by 0.9% in relation to Yuan to 10.5510, which could be the most sharp fall since the end of January. It falls by 1.1% in relation to the euro to 76.9350.

Starting from February 7, the Ministry of Finance sends Yuan to sell 8.9 billion rubles a day. A month earlier, the volume of daily sales amounted to 3.2 billion rubles.

The growth of currencies is due to the introduction of a ceiling of prices for Russian oil and oil products, according to Interfax. On December 5, 2022, the ban on the European Union and the G7 countries for the purchase of Russian oil entered into force, from February 5, 2023 – an embargo to import oil products. In addition, in the same time, a ban on the sea transportation of Russian oil and oil products began to operate in the same time, if they are sold above the set price ceiling. For oil, it is still installed at $60 per barrel, for oil products – $100 per barrel, for diesel fuel and gasoline, $45 per barrel – for low -added products (fuel oil, NAFTA).

The index of Russian government bonds has not changed much at 129.97, since the Ministry of Finance is preparing to hold two OFZ auctions. Russia’s budget deficit is $25 billion due to the reduction in energy income.

“An increase in the budget deficit is caused by a complex of one -time factors and does not indicate a long -term trend, ” reassures Pavel Biryukov, economist Gazprombank.

The Moscow Exchange index of Russia grew by 0.6% to 2,282.06. Brent oil increased by 1.2% to $84.66 per barrel.

The ruble will continue the gradual weakening and can test the mark of 73 rubles/ $1 until we see the restoration of prices for Russian oil and solutions to problems with oil products, solid Broker analysts say. According to analysts, the incoming export revenue from the sale of oil and oil products remains the main factor that determines the currency course. Given the fall in prices, not only for oil, but also for oil products in recent months, as well as in connection with the upcoming difficulties of supplying oil products, it is quite natural that the volume of currency is reduced.

“The budget rule is only a stabilizer of the course, ” is emphasized in the commentary. “So far we will not see the restoration of prices for Russian oil and solutions to problems with oil products, the course, in our opinion, will gradually weaken. We think that the level of 73 rubles. $1 will be punched. In general, for the economy and most industries, a soft weakening of the course is moderately positive, so we look at the current situation quite calmly. The exporters’ promotion, “Segezha”, “Norilskell”, “Fosagro” winning from this course. , “Pole” and others.

Russia survived the year of sanctions, investing as never before

Capital expenses grew after the beginning in 2022, but risks loom ahead

Russia seeks to get out of the economic crisis, which threatened to lead to the deepest recession for more than the two -year -old rule of President Vladimir Putin.

The rapid growth of export of goods sent capital to the treasury of government and companies, fueling an increase in investment in business, which was unprecedented during previous economic downturns and turned out to be decisive in 2022.

Large and small companies spent money on replacing foreign equipment and software or directed money to create new supplies for entering alternative markets. According to Bloomberg Economics, faced with the initial forecasts of reducing capital costs to 20%, in 2022 in Russia, instead, they increased by 6%.

Source: Bloomberg Economics . . *shows a general change from the peak to the end of the decline

But just as more stringent export restrictions are deprived of the Russian Federation, the future for investments is oversaturated with all kinds of risks. Although the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy of Russia expect a period of stability or only a small decline, Bloomberg Economics predicts that investment in fixed assets will decrease by 5% in 2023 – a serious obstacle to the economy, which is expected to be reduced by 1.5%.

According to Olga Belenka, economist finam in Moscow, a decrease in corporate income and pressure on the part of the sanctions will stop impulse and aggravate uncertainty, which will probably lead to a sharp drop in expenses, albeit smaller in scale than the first forecast for 2022.

“It seems that investments supported by the government and state corporations may still increase, but the investments of the private sector will be reduced, ” she said.

Invest to survive

Sustainability last year was a matter of survival for companies that now needed to survive what the Central Bank calls the “structural transformation” of the economy besieged by sanctions. The Bank of Russia said that the vast majority of enterprises either increased investments or retained them unchanged in 2022.

This helps to explain why production was reduced by only 2%, which is much less than the predicted economic collapse immediately after its beginning at the end of February.

What does Bloomberg Economics say . . .

“The Russian recession is not like any of the previous ones. During a typical recession, private investments suffer most, while household consumption is less reduced. Not this time. According to our estimates, this anomaly will disappear in 2023, since the high uncertainty and risks of doing business in Russia restrain investments. ”

–Alexandr Isakov, economist in Russia.

While Russia was trying to cope with the deficit caused by sanctions, new private enterprises arose, many of which relied on state loans or subsidies.

It is expected that in the Pskov region in the west of Russia the plant will produce industrial batteries to replace imports. The chemical enterprise launched in Chuvashia on the Volga plans to produce hydrogen peroxide in volumes, which must fully ensure domestic demand. Under Moscow began to produce hydraulic equipment and pharmaceuticals.

Maria Romanovskaya is one of the entrepreneurs awaiting the materialization of state support after she invested her own money in the creation of a cosmetics manufacturer after the departure of Western brands last year. She turned to the government for financing, planning to invest in the construction of facilities and move from contract production to the development of her own full semi -automatic production line.

“Some gigantic amount of money was allocated for this, ” she said. “We had the right to two state support programs, and we submitted an application for one. ”

Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

The disappearance of many imported goods was one of the forces that transformed the Russian wartime economy, pushing growth based on less complex technologies, to what its Central Bank called “reverse industrialization”.

And the money that the government and companies now pour into the economy also reflect the urgent development of the new infrastructure for trade after Russia actually had to abandon the routes to Western markets, the construction of which once cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The departure from traditional consumers in Russia meant that the gas giant of PJSC Gazprom had to double its investment program with a plan for increasing investment to a record level in 2023 to finance the reorientation of export to the east.

Investment case

“This trend should maintain investments in fixed assets in the coming years, ” said Tatyana Orlova from Oxford Economics.

A similar reason prompted oil manufacturers to invest in transport infrastructure and tankers. Taking advantage of the huge unexpected profit from high prices for raw materials, the mining sector became the largest source of investment last year.

PJSC Severstal, one of the largest manufacturers in Russia, retained capital costs almost unchanged and redirected investments in projects that were at risk of interruptions in the supply of equipment or export restrictions.

This year, Severstal also develops domestic information technologies for use in metallurgy and related industries. State creditors, such as PJSC VTB Bank and Rosselkhozbank, are similarly invested in the replacement of foreign software by local decisions.

Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

An abundance of funds means that capital becomes available to sectors that long thirsty for investment. Only the state program of preferential lending is aimed at the allocation of about 300 billion rubles ($4.3 billion) to small and medium -sized businesses.

What’s next

However, the costs of economic isolation will only grow over time, and it is likely that Russia will exchange self -sufficiency for more expensive products of lower quality.

And for most companies now more attention is paid to survival than development. The Bank of Russia survey showed that among small and medium -sized businesses, only every fourth company is preparing to further increase capital costs. For large companies, a third is ready to do this.

Source: Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, for many enterprises, the choice is to do without development so far.

Sergei Yangchukov, whose group of Mangazei is engaged in various activities, from mining to the construction of real estate, says that his expenses are not realized.

The team responsible for the gold mining division was found several times over the past year to discuss risks and possible scenarios. According to him, they came to the conclusion that “it is necessary to move forward” and invest in the future.

“Complex times will pass, and the projects will remain – they are long -term, so we stop nothing, ” he said.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on Bloomberg materials

Sberbank and PSB gave forecasts of the ruble course on Wednesday

The profitability of OFZ on Wednesday will most likely increase, and the ruble will continue to stay near the level of 71 rubles ./$1 – Sbercib

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The profitability of ruble government bonds during the trading session on Wednesday will most likely grow, given the increased risk of tough comments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a meeting on Friday, February 10, Sbercib Investment Research analysts believe. The global strengthening of the dollar, apparently, will suspend on Wednesday, and the ruble will continue to stay near the level of 71 rubles ./$1, according to Sberbank.

The consolidation of the course of the dollar/ruble course is likely in the range of 70.5-71.5 rubles ./$1 at auction on Wednesday, despite the introduction of a ceiling of prices for oil products of the Russian Federation (which can cause supply violations), the potential of a sharp weakening of the ruble is limited to the activity of the government on foreign currencyThe market, the chief analyst of the department of economic and industry analysis of Promsvyazbank (PSB) Yegor Zhilnikov believes.

Powell does not allow the dollar to recover normally

The dollar retreats because Powell adheres to the usual Fed strategy

The schedule of the dollar index in intervals of 15 minutes

The dollar weakened on Wednesday after the chairman of the federal reserve system Jerome Powell demonstrated minor signs of a hawk reaction to a sustainable labor market in the United States, which instilled the hope that interest rates would no longer increase in a big step, as happened last year.

At a session of questions and answers to Washington’s economic club on Tuesday, Powell admitted that interest rates may have to be increased higher than expected if the economic conditions remain strong, but repeated that, in his opinion, the process of disinflation continues.

The US dollar struggled to restore its losses at Asian auction on Wednesday, after falling at the previous session during Powell’s performance.

The pound of sterling grew by 0.02% to $1.20525, bouncing from the monthly minimum of Tuesday of $1.19615.

Similarly, the euro was last slightly higher at $1.0730 after falling to 1.06695 dollars at the previous session, the lowest level from January 9.

Powell “did not necessarily say something tangibly new . . . I think we are starting to get used to the idea that the Fed is now, of course, depends on the data, ” said Chris Weston, head of the research department in Pepperstone.

“The markets and the central bank are now in a position when they simply observe data, so now we are less sensitive to Fed officials and are much more sensitive to data. “

In relation to the currency basket, the US dollar index stabilized at 103.31, after a decrease by 0.3% at the previous session.

The dollar demonstrated a short -lived rally after a Friday employment report, which showed that the number of employees in the non -agricultural sector grew by 517,000 jobs last month.

This led to the fact that the US dollar index reached a monthly maximum of 103.96 on Tuesday, since investors increased their expectations as much more to the Fed Time to continue increasing interest rates. Futures quotes showed that the markets expect that the rate on federal funds will reach a maximum just above 5.1% by June.

The yen was last bought at a price of 131.21 per dollar, after growth by 1.2% at the previous session.

The data on Tuesday showed that the real wage in Japan has grown for the first time in nine months thanks to significant temporary bonuses, which inspires hope in investors who carefully monitor wages in the country.

A significant increase in wages in spring negotiations on labor issues is considered as a necessary condition for Japan Bank (BOJ) reduces large -scale monetary incentives.

Separately, the Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kisida said on Wednesday that the new head of the Japanese Bank should have strong communicative skills and the ability to closely coordinate its actions with world central banks.

The New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.02% to $0.6324, while the Australian dollar grew by 0.06% to 0.6964 dollars after more than 1% in Tuesday.

The reserve bank of Australia on Tuesday raised its monetary rate at 25 basic points, as expected, but confirmed that a further increase would be required, which indicates a more hawk policy of politics than many expected.

“Most of the market participants were partially caught by surprise by a hawk attitude, ” said Carol Kong, a Comonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist. Now it expects two more increase for 25 basic points in March and April, which will bring the monetary rate to a maximum of 3.85%.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

CITI analyst allowed the growth rate of the Fed to 6% and the strengthening of the dollar due to revaluation

Markets can underestimate the risk of further raising rates

According to the head of the department of trading strategies Citigroup Inc. In the Asia-Pacific region, traders ignore the risk of higher than expected, the peak of interest rates in the United States, which can lead to a painful sale of both bonds and shares.

According to Mohammed Apabay, stocks in markets from USA to Europe, from Hong Kong to Korea look overvalued and can fall in the next three to four months, while the dollar will grow along with expectations of raising rates. According to him, the fair value of the S&P 500 will fall below 3,500 this year – a decrease by about 15% compared to current levels – and it is expected that the Hang Seng index will return its annual growth and fall even more.

“To be optimistic in relation to shares, you need to see how the dollar will fall by another 10% from the current level, and it will be difficult if the Fed is going to increase the rates as high as the market does not expect this, ” he said in an interview with Hong Kong. “I am putting on to continue sales of shares during periods of their rebounds up. ”

The Hong Kong strategist said that one of the risks that the market has not yet taken into account is the interest rates in the United States at 6%.

Bond traders reacted to many recent hawk comments from representatives of the federal reserve system, but rated peak rates a little more than 5% at the end of this year, which corresponds to the forecasts of politicians. Investors still rely on the fact that the recession in the United States will lead to the turn of the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of 2023.

 Sources: Council of Managers of the Federal Reserve System, Chicago Machine Exchange, Bloomberg. Note. The diagram shows a change in the basic interest rate of the Fed, due to the index swaps of the overnight and futures on the secure rate of financing of the overnight. In the FRS forecasts, interpolation is used.

“I think that the market of the forward curve is frankly incorrect, ” said Apabhei. “In any case, the betting market is too bluish, but low rates will most likely come after reaching the extreme point on the hawk side. The market has not yet conducted a stress testing of such an opportunity. ”

Although Apabhai is a bond for bonds, he said that now it is premature to buy treasury bonds until the yield of 10-year bonds will exceed 4.25%. He sees a step forward in quantitative tightening, which will lead to acceleration of the growth of the dollar and pressure on the assets of developing markets.

“We do not think that the possibilities for Chinese bonds or bonds of Asian developing markets look as attractive as they were when you thought that the dollar would be weaker, ” he said. “The bear’s behavior is over. “

He added that Chinese securities experience additional pressure due to the growth of geopolitical risks.

“At the moment, we have many contradictions that exist on the market, ” said Apabhei. “The adjustment process can be painful for betting markets, bonds and shares. ”

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on Bloomberg materials

What analysts say about the ruble

The ruble falls in relation to Yuan, but stable in relation to the dollar

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

The ruble falls in relation to Yuan, and bidding in relation to the US dollar has not changed much, as analysts expect to support the Russian currency from increasing sales of foreign currency in accordance with the budget rule. The ruble decreases by 0.3% in relation to Yuanu in Moscow to 10.4470, is traded at 70.9375 in relation to the dollar.

The Ministry of Finance plans to increase sales in the yuan to 8.9 billion rubles a day from Tuesday, which can limit any further significant weakening of the Russian currency, according to the analytical note of St. Petersburg Bank.

“The USDRUB course will probably continue to move in the range of 70-72 rubles/$ in the near future. ”

Yuan’s sales mean that the ruble “will not be left without support, ” Andrei Kochetkov also believes, the analyst “Research Opening” notes, indicating oil growth.

The ruble strengthened by 0.3% in relation to the euro until 76.0325, approaching the third day of growth. Brent grew by 1.7% to $82.37 per barrel. The Moscow Exchange index of Russia has little changed by 2,273,13. The index of Russian GOOBLIGATIONS has little changed to 130.05.

The exchange pair of USD/RUB is most likely to remain in the range of 70-72 rubles. /$1 in the nearest trading sessions, Code/Rub course-in the range of 10.3-10.6, BCS Express expert Vasily Karpunin believes. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation will increase the volume of currency (yuan) from 3.2 to 8.9 billion rubles from Tuesday, which should provide some support for the national tax, suspending the weakening phase, the analyst notes in the commentary.

The dollar exchange rate will probably take a certain pause in growth and will compete with the range of 70.5-71 rubles. /$1 on Tuesday, believes the chief analyst of the department of economic and industry analysis (PSB) Yegor Zhilnikov. The key factors of support for the national currency will be an increase in the share of participation in the market of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (daily sales of yuan in the amount of 8.9 billion rubles), as well as an increase in oil quotes, the expert notes in the commentary.

Russia’s budget deficit has reached a maximum of $25 billion since 1998 due to a fall in energy income

Oil and gas taxes in January fell to 426 billion rubles

The income of the Russian government from oil and gas fell sharply in January, which led to the largest budget deficit in the first month of the year since 1998.

In January, tax revenues from oil and gas fell by 46% compared to last year, while expenses increased by 59% because of their own in Ukraine. The totality of these factors led to a state budget deficit in Russia in the amount of 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion), the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

The drop in oil and gas revenues followed Western sanctions against Russian exports, which now include the ban on the European Union on most of the marine import of raw and processed fuel, as well as the price limit of a large seven. Thanks to these measures, the Yurals oil oil – the key export mixture of Russia – is traded with a significant discount compared to reference prices.

Source: Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Ministry of Finance.

President Vladimir Putin demanded from the government by March 1 to develop a plan for assessing the price of Russian oil in order to compensate for the negative impact of sanctions on budget revenues. The Ministry of Finance taxes oil producers on the basis of a monthly assessment of oil prices for the Urals brand conducted by Argus Media. The assessment includes freight costs and insurance of goods sent to northwest Europe.

The Russian government is working on new approaches to the transition to alternative price indicators for tax purposes, ”the Ministry of Finance said. This is due to the fact that “the representativeness of Urals quotes as an objective price indicator of export prices for Russian oil” decreased, the report said.

According to the Ministry of Finance, in January, the price of Urals was an average of 49.48 dollars per barrel, which is the lowest in December 2020. For comparison, the average Brent price was $77.82 per barrel last month.

The fall of non -energy income

The reduction in Russian gas exports also contributed to a decrease in energy income after PJSC Gazprom reduced most of its supplies to Europe, which was once the largest market market.

Non -energy income also fell by 28% in January, the ministry reported, partly explaining this by a change in the rules of value added tax.

“The reduction of oil revenues to the budget is expected, but a 30 percent fall from taxes related to domestic consumption is ominous, ” said Alex Isakov, economist Bloomberg Economics. “We expect that oil revenues will continue to lag behind during the year, as a result of which the deficit will be 1.5% of GDP above the government forecasts. ”

In a separate statement, the Ministry of Finance reported that in January it sold 3.6 tons of gold, as well as 2.3 billion yuan from the sovereign welfare fund to cover the deficit. Most of the international reserves of Russia are frozen by international sanctions. The ministry said that, in his opinion, it can still fulfill its budget tasks this year.

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on Bloomberg materials

Sberbank gave forecast the ruble course in the near future

It is possible to fix the ruble at the level of 71 rubles ./$1 in the near future – Sbercib

Dollar/ruble at Mosbirzh intervals of 1 minute

Dollar/ruble at Forex intervals at 4 hours

It is possible to consolidate the ruble exchange rate in relation to the US dollar at the level of 71 rubles ./$1 in the near future, given the growth of Yuan sales by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, as well as potentially large sales of currency exporters, experts Sbercib Investment Research believe.

Brent brand oil quotes during the day, according to Sberbank analysts, can rise to $82 per barrel, given the signal for purchase from technical indicators.

Economists also expect on Tuesday the growth of OFZ revenues on the site of a curve of five years, as is usually the case on the day of the announcement of auctions. Additional pressure on the quotes, in their opinion, may have that the deficit of the budget of the Russian Federation in January amounted to 1.76 trillion rubles, significantly exceeding the average values of past years

The digital pound of the Bank of England will press private competitors

The Virtual currency of the Central Bank, released under the control of the Bank of England and the Treasury, can supplant cash by the end of the decade

The British Treasury and the Bank of England are developing a “digital pound”, which can replace banknotes by the end of the decade and resist large technological competitors. Against the backdrop of cash reduction, ministers and officials believe that a digital currency supported by the state may be required, which will be stored in wallets on smartphones and used for purchases like banknotes and coins.

Consumers, already accustomed to quick digital payments, will not notice special differences, but the basic infrastructure will be part of the central bank and will be available to everyone. Officials believe that the digital pound will help the Bank of England to maintain control over the core of the British financial system and will not allow private companies to make payments in a closed network.

There are more and more arguments

According to the treasury, the final decision on the development of the project will be made around 2025, when it becomes clear whether the potential advantages of introducing new payment infrastructure costs and risks.

One potential danger that was previously noted in the House of Lords and the Bank of England is due to the fact that the new digital currency of the Central Bank (CBDC) can strengthen financial instability if households and companies will simultaneously immediately withdraw money from commercial banks to invest them to invest. In a digital pound supported by the government.

To avoid this, the treasury intends to initially limit the amounts that can be stored in new wallets, although such restrictions will reduce the advantages of digital currency as a payment system. Starting to detailed design, officials seek to make a digital pound play the same role as cash: to make unhindered payments without interest and become the basis of the British currency. This, in their opinion, would help combine various payment systems of the private sector, ranging from debit and credit cards to financial and companies, such as Monzo and Revolut, and new stablecoins developed by cryptocurrency suppliers.

According to Andrew Bailey, the chairman of the Bank of England, the arguments in favor of the digital currency of the Central Bank “continue to increase”. At the same time, he emphasized that there are fears that need to be scattered before making a “complex decision for the country on how we will use money. ”The private sector already provides effective payment infrastructure, so the digital currencies of the Central Bank are a “solution in search of a problem”.

The popularity of CBDC is growing

Nevertheless, official digital currencies are becoming more popular among central banks. According to the Atlantic Council, as of December 2022, 114 countries studied the possibility of introducing CBDC. Almost 30 governments, including China, Bahamas and Jamaica, or completely launched CBDC, or implement pilot projects.

The reasons are different. Analysts believe that the Chinese “digital yuan” allows us to strengthen control and is an alternative to domestic and international payment systems. The Central Bank of the Bahamas, as the reason for the launch of Sand Dollar, calls the expansion of access to financial services and strengthening systems to combat money laundering.

The study in relation to digital euros, the EU started, should be completed in October, after which the block will decide whether it is worth starting the development. In the USA, federal backup banks of Boston and New York are studying the possibility of retail and wholesale use of CBDC, respectively.

Prepared based on the materials of The Financial Times

The dollar rate suspenses growth

The Australian is growing against the background of the hawk forecast of the RBA

The schedule of the dollar index in intervals of 15 minutes

The dollar weakened on Tuesday after growth on the eve, but still hesitated near the month of the maximum, since traders increased their forecasts regarding how high the US federal reserve system will need to increase interest rates in order to curb inflation.

The Australian dollar, meanwhile, grew after raising the rate of the Australian reserve bank (RBA), rising by a whole 1% to the intrauditic maximum of $0.6952, and was last bargain at 0.6932 dollars.

The RBA raised its monetary rate at the expected 25 basic points on Tuesday and confirmed that further increase would be required – a more hawk approach to politics than many expected.

“Staying that, in his opinion, inflation will remain high for a long period, RBA undermines any thoughts about softening later this year or at the beginning of the next, ” said Rob Carnell, regional investigation of the ING market in the Asian -Pacific region.

“This will increase the profitability of long -term bonds and short -term expectations at the rates. This will also give the AUD impulse (Australian dollar). “

The markets were sent from the shock caused by Friday’s employment in the United States, which showed that the number of employees in the non -agricultural sector increased by 517,000 jobs in January, which indicates sustainable dynamics of the labor market.

The report was confused by traders who bet on an inevitable pause in the cycle of tightening the Federal Customs Service of the Fed, and strengthened the American currency, although the latter lost some growth on Asian auction on Tuesday.

The pound of sterling for the last time grew 0.2% to $1.2046, after falling to a monthly minimum of $1.2006 at the previous session.

Similarly, the New Zealand dollar grew by 0.29% to $0.6323, but was not far from a monthly minimum of Monday of $0.6271.

The euro grew by 0.08% to $1.0735, dropping at the previous session to $1.0709, the lowest level from January 9th.

“From last Friday, (when) the United States reported a higher number of jobs, this has changed the expectations that the Fed will change its monetary policy, ” said Tina Ten, a market analyst with CMC Markets. “I do not think that the number of jobs is key . . . But this definitely has a serious impact on monetary policy (Fed). “

The profitability of the US Treasury bonds increased against the backdrop of the expectations of an increase in interest rate, the yield of two -year papers was 4.4267% after reaching a monthly maximum of 4.4930% on Monday.

The yield of 10-year bonds was the last time at the level of 3.6192%, similarly to rising to a four-week maximum of 3.6550% at the previous session.

Futures show that the markets expect that the rate on federal funds will reach a maximum just above 5.1% by June, compared with expectations of less than 5% until a Friday employment report.

The growing American currency pushed the US dollar index to almost a month of 103.76 on Monday. The last time it was 0.13% lower and amounted to 103.47.

Japanese yen increased by 0.3% to 132.26 per dollar, but remained near the month of Monday of 132.90 per dollar.

The data on Tuesday showed that the real wage in Japan has grown in December for the first time in nine months, although there is an uncertainty with regard to whether the increase in wages will continue to support the restoration of the country’s economy.

On Monday, a newspaper message said that the Japanese government proposed Deputy Head of Japan of Japan Masaesi Amamia to replace the current Harhiko Kurod as head of the Central Bank. The markets consider the Amamia a more “pigeon” candidate than other applicants.

“I do not think that the Bank of Japan will change the monetary policy, ” Ten from CMC said, expressing the hope of the market that the Central Bank would abandon its policy of controlling the return curve as soon as the new manager takes office. “There are still economic problems, there are still risks of recession. “

Prepared by Profinance. ru based on the materials of Thomson Reuters

2023-02-10 04:54