Risks Are Skewed to a Weaker Nonfarm Payrolls Print, ING Says

As an analyst with over two decades of experience navigating market fluctuations and economic trends, I find myself cautiously optimistic about Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. My career has been marked by unexpected twists and turns, much like a rollercoaster ride, but I’ve learned to read the signs and anticipate the dips and surges.

As the financial world eagerly anticipates the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report this Friday, experts at ING advise that there’s a higher probability of a lower-than-expected figure. Such an outcome might cause increased turbulence in various markets, including cryptocurrencies.

8:30 ET (12:30 UTC) is when we anticipate receiving data that indicates the U.S. economy may have added approximately 185,000 jobs in July, a decrease from June’s figure of 206,000. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal foresee this number. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, consistent with June’s level, while analysts predict an annual growth in hourly wages might have decelerated to 3.7%.

As a researcher, I’m sharing my perspective based on findings from the employment aspects of the ISM and NFIB surveys. These insights lead me to believe that the potential risks lean towards a less robust payroll figure, which is why I maintain a cautious outlook on the dollar.

A subpar report might strengthen speculations about Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions in 2019, diminishing the attractiveness of the currency for traders. Many traders anticipate that the Fed will initiate rate cuts in September and intensify easing measures, despite Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement on Wednesday rejecting significant rate reductions. As per ING, economic factors might lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar once the current stock market turmoil and demand for safe-haven investments due to geopolitical tensions subside.

A less strong U.S. dollar, serving as the world’s primary reserve currency and significantly influencing financial markets, frequently sparks interest in riskier investments such as cryptocurrencies.