Biden’s Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

As an analyst, I would interpret the data by saying: Following the ABC News interview with George Stephanopoulos, the “yes” shares for Biden in the contract predicting the presidential winner were priced at 11 cents. This was a penny less than the price prior to the broadcast. Each share represents a potential payout of $1 if the prediction comes true and nothing if it does not. Consequently, an 11-cent price implies that the market assigns a 11% probability to the incumbent’s chances of winning the presidency in November.

Approximately a month ago, the share price stood at 36 cents. However, following Biden’s subpar showing in the presidential debate against his Republican opponent, Donald Trump, the value took a hit.

The presidential winner contract is Polymarket’s largest, with $229 million of bets placed.

The probability of Biden securing the Democratic nomination title in a distinct agreement rose by a single percentage point to reach 42%, following the television broadcast. The value at risk for this contract amounts to $89 million.

I, as an analyst, have come across a third agreement that hinges on the question of President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race. A substantial sum of twelve million dollars is at stake based on this outcome. The likelihood of this happening has seen a notable increase, climbing three points to now rest at 65%.

This year, Polymarket, a four-year-old platform, has experienced a significant increase in volume due to heightened interest in political betting surrounding the upcoming U.S. election in November. In June alone, the company reached over $100 million in trading volume for the first time. Furthermore, Polymarket garnered recognition for predicting early on, through their “Biden drops out?” contract’s trading activity, that former President Trump’s opponent’s cognitive health could be a concern, well before mainstream media began addressing the issue seriously.

As a researcher studying the intersection of prediction markets and blockchain technology, I’ve come to believe that the decentralized and tamper-evident properties of blockchains make them an ideal solution for prediction markets. These markets allow unfiltered sharing of opinions on any topic from anywhere in the world, making their transparency and global reach essential features.

In his article, Pokorny pointed out that prediction markets based on blockchain have certain restrictions. The views expressed in these markets are influenced solely by individuals engaged with cryptocurrencies, a group that is relatively small and may share similar perspectives. As crypto gains more prominence in the political arena and Polymarket caters exclusively to crypto users, there’s a risk that its political markets could be biased towards pro-crypto sentiments.